This definitive guide to positive EV bets will explain its pros and cons and how to use this technique to exploit incorrect bookmaker odds to return an average profit rate every time. When you know the best odds, you stand to maximize your return.
The expected value of a bet is the predicted value of a variable. It is the sum of all possible value multiplied with the probability of its occurrence. With +EV sports betting, you can expect a profit over time.
But keep in mind that there is both a neutral and a negative expected value in betting. Below, we’ll give you some practical examples with bets. For now, let’s consider the following example:
Amount won per bet x the probability of winning – Amount lost per bet x the probability of losing
Let’s take the coin toss for an example of how to calculate expected value. If the coin and toss are fair, then each outcome (heads/tails) has an equal chance of 50%. Therefore, the odds on a fair market would have odds of 2.0.
This would give you an EV value of 0 for either a tails or heads. The probability of both outcomes is equal, so if you tossed a penny infinitely, it would theoretically be all square.
However, if you are offered 2.15 odds that the coin will land on heads, then this is a value wager.
If you place $10 on the coin landing at 2.15 on heads, the EV will be calculated similarly to that above.
Positive expected value (+EV), betting is when you place bets with a higher chance of winning than the odds. Odds Scanner US +EV screens will show you profitable bets that have a mathematical advantage over a specific sportsbook.
Odds Scanner US uses odds from the best sportsbooks in the world to calculate the expected profit margin. This is also known as “fair value” or “true odds.”
Value betting or positive expected value betting is only for those who are able to manage risk and tolerate variance. You must be prepared for downswings as a +EV sports bettor. However, since all your wagers have positive expected values, it is mathematically impossible to predict that you will make a profit over the long term.
Sportsbooks would be out of business if all bettors bet only on +EV bets. But sports bettors don’t have a way to know which bets will have positive expected values. Some bettors trust their algorithms while others monitor injury news.
Still, others have a better understanding of the market and can calculate EV betting when it’s time for them to “buy low,” which allows them to beat the closing line.
Check out our EV betting example guide below to get a better understanding of how it works.
Using Odds Scanner US, convert your odds to American, Decimal, and Fractional odds by simply entering them. It will calculate the implied probability of winning and the profit if it wins.
A $100 bet at +200 in American odds (1/2 fractional or 1.50 decimal) has a 66.67% implied probability and a potential profit of $50. This is not the total return which would include your original wager amount. If it wins, a $100 bet at +200 American odds (2/1 or 3.00in decimal) has the potential of making $200.
Horse racing and futures markets are the most common uses of fractional odds. These are essentially simple math: Divide one number by another, then multiply that sum by your bet amount.
The odds of winning more than the original wager will be paid if the bigger number is divided by the smaller number, ie, 3/1. However, if the smaller number (ie: 3/1) is divided by the greater number, then the odds of winning will be less than the original wager.
American odds can be presented in thousands or hundreds of numbers and are categorized by the assigned value. It is easy to imagine American odds calculation as currency exchanges in increments of $100.
Use our guide to EV gambling below to find +EV bets in sports betting.
The better you get at finding positive EV in sports betting, the easier it will be for you to successfully place correct wagers.
Odds Scanner US is essential in finding the best odds and lines in sports betting. Best of all, it’s a free tool that you can use as much as you like.
Use our tips on +EV sports betting to find the expected value of a bet and maximize your winnings potential.
Many sports bettors fail because they allow emotions to cloud their judgment. Avoid this at all costs and never focus on favorites.
Use Odds Scanner US to compare lines so that you make informed betting decisions.
This phenomenon has spread to local sports betting markets. Sportsbooks in some states that have legalized sports betting, such as Pennsylvania and New Jersey, see an increase in the number of local teams like the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants, as well as sportsbooks taking a large amount of action for their own sports betting markets.
Going back to the supermarket analogy, customers should not only look for the lowest prices in one store but also the best overall prices. Sharp bettors shop around to find the best deals.
Absolutely. +EV betting can prove to be very beneficial financially when you stick to it. Therefore, it’s important to hone your skills and use Odds Scanner US to get the best odds and lines in sports betting. Combined, you stand to maximize your winnings.
Still have some questions? Check out our FAQ to better understand +EV sports betting.
Expected value = (Winning implied probability % * profit if the bet was won) – Losing implied probabilities % * stake If the number is positive, it means that the bet has an expected value of positive. This would mean that you will always make a profit if you simulate the event infinitely.
Professional gamblers use EV on a daily basis at new betting websites.
“EV” stands for expected value, referring to the expected bet.
This formula calculates the expected value. This formula works like this: (fair win probability) x(profit if you win) x(stake). This formula is found in the Odds Scanner US betting expected value calculator.
